Dollar Index has dipped from 105.50 but has scope to test 106 while above 104. Similarly, Euro could test 1.06 while below 1.08. Aussie and Pound looks bearish towards 0.64 and 1.2350. USDJPY can rise to 148-149 while EURJPY can bounce back from 156.60. USDCNY can test 7.30/35 while above 7.25. USDRUB can trade within 94-98 range. EURINR trades above 88.30 and could remain within 88-89.50 for the near term. USDINR can face rejection from 83.20/25 and fall back to 83.00-82.90
Dollar Index (105.264) is holding below 105.50 and could have scope to fall towards 104.40 before again rising higher towards crucial resistance at 106. It is important for the index to hold below 106 to validate crucial levels on other major currencies against the Dollar.
EURUSD (1.0667) is holding above 1.0630 and could have scope to rise to 1.07 or slightly higher but at the same time we cannot negate a fall to 1.06 while below 1.08.
EURJPY (157.56) has been trading above 156.60 for quite a few sessions and may continue trade within 156-159 region for another week or so before any sharp movement is seen on either side.
Dollar-Yen (147.73) looks bullish for a rise to 148-149 while above immediate support at 147.
USDCNY (7.2852) saw a sharp rise from 7.25 as expected. There is scope for a rise towards 7.30/35 eventually.
Aussie (0.6439) is highly fluctuating and can trade within 0.64-0.65 for the near term.
Pound (1.2389) has broken below 1.24 and could be headed towards 1.2350-1.23 soon in the coming sessions. Overall view is bearish below 1.24.
USDRUB (96.7260) could continue range within 94-98 for the near term.
USDINR (83.19) may face rejection from 83.20/25 and dip back towards 83.00-82.90.
EURINR (88.6298) is holding above 88.30. Broad range of 89.50-88.30/88.00 can hold for the near term.
The US Treasury yields have risen further and are looking bullish to see more rise from here. The US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday is a very important event to watch this week. The outcome of this meeting can set the trend for the market going forward. The German yields have surged. Outlook is bullish and there is more room to rise. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have risen sharply. The supports have held well and that keeps the broader uptrend intact.
The US 10Yr (4.33%) and the 30Yr (4.42%) yields have risen further. Bullish view is intact to see 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.5% (30Yr) first and then 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.7% (30Yr) eventually. Immediate supports are at 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr).
The German 10Yr (2.67%) and the 30Yr (2.81%) yields have surged and are keeping our bullish view intact for seeing 3%-3.1% on the upside. Support is 2.5% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr).
The 10Yr GoI (7.1989%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.1852%) have risen sharply on Friday. The support at 7.1% has well on both. A break above 7.2% can take both the yields up to 7.25% and higher. Broader bullish view is intact to see 7.35% (10Yr) and 7.3% and 7.45% (5Yr) on the upside.
Dow Jones has fallen back sharply last Friday but is likely to get support at 34400 and 34200. DAX is moving up towards the upper end of its 15500-16100 range. Nifty remains bullish for a test 20300-20400 in the near term. Shanghai is bearish while below the resistance at 3150.
Dow (34618.24, -0.83%) has come down sharply on Friday and is struggling to breach 35000. Key supports are at 34400 and 34200 while above which the bias is bullish to break 35000 and rise to 35500-36000.
DAX (15893.53, +0.56%) is moving up towards the upper end of its 15500-16100 range. A range breakout is needed to get clarity on the next move.
Nifty (20192.35, +0.44%) made a high of 20222 on Friday. There is room to test 20300-20400 after which the price action will need a close watch to see if the Nifty is reversing lower or extending the rise further.
Nikkei (33533.09) is closed today. But bias is bullish for a rise towards 34000 or even higher towards 35000 while it sustains above 33000.
Shanghai (3118.54, +0.03%) is inching down within its 3100-3150 range. A sustained break below 3100 can trigger a fall towards 3075/3050. On the upside resistance is at 3135-3150.
Brent and WTI remains bullish for a test of key resistance at $ 95 and $ 92 respectively. Gold and Silver outlook is bullish while above the support at 1920 (Gold) and 22.50 (Silver), respectively. Copper is to be range bound within 3.86-3.75 for a while. Natural gas has scope to test the support at 2.51-2.50 before a bounce back can happen.
Brent ($ 94.39) is on its way to test $ 95. While that holds, a corrective fall towards $ 90-89 can be seen. In case it breaks above $ 95 an extended rise to $ 96 is possible.
WTI ($ 90.50) remains higher above $ 90. A test of $ 92 is possible before a fall back can be seen from there. If it happens to break above $ 92, it could see an extended rise to $ 93-94.
Gold (1946.40) rose sharply to 1952.40 last friday and has come off a bit from there today. View is bullish for a further rise towards the resistance at 1965-1970.
Silver (23.40) has risen well towards 23.50 as expected. A further rise towards 24 is possible while above the support at 22.50.
Copper (3.8030) tested 3.8515 last friday in line with our expectations for a test of 3.86-3.90 and has declined from there. Support is at 3.75. A range of 3.75-3.86 could hold for a while. A break on either side of the range will decide if it will rise towards 3.90 or falls towards 3.70.
Natural Gas (2.6370) continues to dip. A test of key support at 2.51-2.50 looks likely before a bounce back can be seen towards 3.0.
20:00 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
Expn -116.5 …Expected – …Previous 195.9
2:00 07:30 CN IIP (YoY)
Expn – …Expected 3.9% …Previous 3.7% …Actual 4.5%
2:00 07:30 CN Retail Sales
Expn – …Expected 3.0% …Previous 2.5% …Actual 4.6%
9:00 14:30 EU Trade Bal
Expn – …Expected 13.5 …Previous 8.6 …Actual 2.9
9:00 14:30 IN Trade bal
Expn -22.8 …Expected -21.0 …Previous -20.67 …Actual -24.16
13:15 18:45 US Industrial Production
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.7% …Actual 0.4%
13:15 18:45 US Capacity Utilization
Expn 79.3% …Expected 79.3% …Previous 79.5% …Actual 79.7%