> Global Macro Signals —
- Fed slashes rates 25 bps, but signals caution on further cuts: The U.S. central bank eased policy to 4.00–4.25 %, yet Powell flagged a “risk-management” stance and held back on forward guidance.
- Asian markets tread water amid mixed global tone: Gains were modest, with China and Southeast Asia markets cautious after Wall Street’s late-session pullback.
- GIFT Nifty hints at tepid Indian open: Futures suggest a flat to slightly weak start for domestic equities this morning.
- U.S. futures recover after earlier dip in S&P: After a mid-session retreat, futures are inching higher, pointing to a choppy day ahead.
- 10-year U.S. yield drifts to ~4.0 % zone: Treasury yield eased from recent highs, taking some pressure off carry trades.
- Dollar index sees mild uptick: A firmer greenback checks foreign inflow enthusiasm toward emerging markets.
- Gold flirts with new highs on haven demand: With uncertainty rising, prices are edging toward all-time levels again.
- Brent hovers near $67–68/bbl on supply tightness: Disruptions in Kurdistan and OPEC signals keep crude firm.
- Trade war rhetoric intensifies as Trump singles out China, India: The U.S. leader accused both nations of “bankrolling” the Ukraine conflict, escalating geopolitical risk.
- FII outflows persist despite rally hopes: Global funds continue shifting capital, keeping downward pressure on Indian equity markets.
Markets got a shot of adrenaline yesterday after the Fed cut rates, but the devil’s in the details. Powell’s cautious messaging reminded investors that the easing cycle won’t be a free pass. At the same time, global yield movements, currency strength, and renewed U.S. trade barbs add layers of uncertainty. In India, the setup is fragile. GIFT Nifty’s lean toward a muted start suggests domestic bulls won’t get an easy run. Add to that the persistent foreign selling and potential spillover from global jitters, and today’s session could test conviction. That said, the rate cut does offer some runway. Lower U.S. interest rates can tilt the balance toward emerging market inflows if India’s macro narrative holds. Watch for cues from overseas flows, currency moves, and how global volatility behaves in the first hour.