Global Macro Signals (24 September)
- GIFT Nifty softens as overseas cues weigh on mood: Futures are trading weaker, reflecting spillover from U.S. volatility and subdued global momentum into India markets.
- Powell warns that equity valuations remain fairly high: His caution injects doubt into hopes for aggressive easing, prompting markets to temper their expectations.
- Asia opens under pressure following weak U.S. night: Regional benchmarks slip as China, Japan and Korea show signs of stress after Wall Street losses.
- U.S. futures struggle after pullback in S&P and Nasdaq: The retreat in key indices suggests traders are trimming exposure ahead of key data.
- 10-year U.S. yield holds near 4.11 percent: Elevated yields are keeping a lid on risk appetite and impacting global carry flows.
- Dollar index inches up on safe-haven demand: The firmer dollar is acting as a headwind for emerging markets seeking inflows.
- Gold cools after recent highs but remains bid: After profit booking, bullion slips slightly, yet safe-haven demand continues to underpin it.
- Brent crude edges higher on tight supply cues: A drop in U.S. crude stocks and disruptions in regional supply provide support.
- India’s fuel exports hit multi-year highs: Strong refinery runs and increased ethanol blending have freed up volumes for overseas markets.
- Foreign selling persists; domestic support shows signs of strain: FIIs continue net offloading, while DII flows have softened, making room for volatility.
// Market Outlook & Trade Setup
The global backdrop remains fraught with mixed signals drives balance between easing hopes and policy caution. In India’s case, that means today’s trade is unlikely to deliver a clean breakout. The weaker opening bias from GIFT Nifty suggests early pressure is possible, especially if global markets remain soft. Key resistance zones may block rallies, while support lines around the 50- and 100-day averages must hold to prevent deeper downside.
Implied volatility is elevated, pointing to traders bracing for sharp intraday moves in either direction. On liquidity and flows, with FIIs still net sellers and DIIs unable to fully absorb, the market’s directional drive is constrained. Overnight F&O contract flows will be instrumental — build-ups in long positions may dampen downside, while lack of participation could leave markets vulnerable to a slide.
Implied cues for open, direction, and trend: Expect a soft open unless global surprises flip sentiment early. The session is likely to trend sideways with a bias toward downside unless support zones hold firm. For a trend reversal or continuation, fresh foreign inflows or strong global impulses are needed to break above resistance decisively.