Global Macro Signals on Morning of 18 Sept 2025 –
- GIFT Nifty surges ahead on easing hopes: Futures are trading higher after the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, driving optimism for fresh capital inflows and supportive global liquidity.
- Fed frames the cut as “risk management” rather than dovish pivot: While the rate move was expected, the cautious tone keeps markets wary of further easing unless data weakens materially.
- Asian equities push higher after U.S. rebound: Stocks across the region are buoyed by U.S. momentum, though gains are tempered by local macro risks and cautious positioning.
- U.S. futures hold firm after mixed session: Following volatility, S&P and Nasdaq futures remain relatively steady, signaling lingering uncertainty in sentiment.
- 10-year U.S. yield dips toward 4.05 percent: Slide in bond yields supports rate-sensitive segments and loosens pressure on carry trades.
- Dollar eases modestly on rate cut relief: A softer greenback is enhancing the appeal of emerging markets, encouraging capital flows into risk assets.
- Gold climbs as safe-haven demand returns: With global ambiguity rising, bullion sees renewed interest and trades near multi-week highs.
- Brent crude holds up amid supply concerns: Tensions around Middle East output and OPEC production discipline support the crude complex.
- Rupee rallies in quiet FX markets: INR is gaining strength against the dollar, aided by weaker greenback flow and positive risk sentiment.
- Institutional flows lean supportive: FIIs are buying modestly following global easing, and DIIs continue to absorb domestic demand pressure.
// Market Outlook and Trade Setup
The global scene is torn between optimism on easing measures and caution over policy messaging. For India, this sets up a day with potential continuation of upside bias, provided key resistance zones are crossed convincingly. The opening spurt from GIFT Nifty points to early strength, but momentum will need backing from fresh flows to sustain further gains. Technically, Nifty is approaching resistance near its recent highs while support zones around moving averages will be critical to hold in case of intraday pullbacks.
Implied volatility is rising, signaling that traders expect intraday swings but are reluctant to lean heavily in one direction. On the liquidity front, renewed FII interest and steady DII buying create a favorable environment for equity markets. However, any sudden reversal in foreign flows could upset the direction. Overnight F&O contract flows will be pivotal—long builds could cushion downside, whereas light participation could leave the market exposed.
Implied cues for open, direction, and trend: Expect a strong open with possible follow-through into the early hours. The session may remain bullish as long as resistance is breached cleanly with volume. If the market falters, range action with downward bias is more likely. Trend continuation will require conviction in global flows or domestic triggers to break above resistance.