> Global Macro Signals on Morning of 23 Sept 2025
- GIFT Nifty weakens modestly as overseas cues drag sentiment: Futures are down, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of global central bank commentary and weak U.S. leads.
- Fed messaging holds rate cut hopes in check: Even amid inflation softening, the Fed continues to emphasize patience, tempering expectations for sharp easing moves.
- Asian equities consolidate after mixed U.S. close: Markets across Asia are flat to slightly negative, with investors unsure whether U.S. strength can sustain.
- U.S. futures under pressure post profit taking: After recent highs, futures are slipping as traders lock in gains and pare exposure.
- 10-year U.S. yield hovers near 4.1 %: Yields remain sticky, constraining risk flows and keeping capital costs elevated.
- Dollar inches up amid safe-haven bids: The firming dollar is weighing on EM inflows, making dollar strength a headwind for equities.
- Gold continues to draw safe-haven demand: With global volatility intact, bullion remains a preferred hedge, holding near record levels.
- Brent crude holds ground on supply concerns: Export bottlenecks and geopolitical risk support crude, even as demand challenges linger.
- Rupee slips to record lows, adding pressure to importers: The INR touched 88.75 versus USD, heightening cost concerns and fueling currency volatility.
- FIIs remain on the sell side; DIIs provide partial buffer: Foreign institutional investors continued net selling while domestic institutions stepped in to absorb some flows.
Market Outlook and Trade Setup –
The global environment is presenting a tug of war between easing hopes and sticky policy hawkishness. For India, this means markets are likely to tread water unless a catalyst emerges to break the impasse. The weak opening bias from GIFT Nifty suggests that early sessions may test support levels before any attempt at recovery. Technically, Nifty is squeezed between resistance above and support zones below. Breaking above the former could unlock short-covering rallies, but a slip below support may trigger sharper unwinds.
Implied volatility is elevated, pointing to market participants preparing for intraday swings without strong directional conviction. On the liquidity front, with FIIs continuing to offload, the onus falls on DIIs and domestic flows to sustain stability. Their buying can blunt intra-day dips, but may not enough to fuel strong advances unless FII trends reverse. Overnight F&O contract flows will be telling — a build-up of long positions could offer some protection, while light lean positioning would make the market vulnerable to downside moves.
Implied cues for open, direction, and trend: Expect a soft open, unless global surprises force a sudden shift. The session is likely to be range bound with bias toward downside unless support zones hold. For trend continuation, markets need a clean breakout above resistance backed by foreign flows or strong global impulse. In sum, Indian equities may see consolidation or tentative pullbacks rather than bold breakouts today. The tone is cautious, liquidity is patchy, flows will be the arbiter, and contract-flow cues should guide entry or exit discipline.