Global Macro Signals (04 October 2025)
- GIFT Nifty firming as easing optimism returns: Futures are trading up, buoyed by expectations of renewed rate cuts and softer U.S. data that cools hawkish fears.
- Fed signals further cuts but emphasizes caution: The central bank reiterated conditional easing, refreshing hopes without promising an aggressive cycle.
- Asian markets rally on soft U.S. cues: Regional stocks are gaining as weak U.S. leads provide cover and markets reassess risk appetite.
- U.S. futures rise after declines in prior session: Futures for the S&P and Nasdaq are gaining as markets catch up to overnight positives.
- 10-year U.S. yield dips toward 4.05 percent: Yield softness is easing pressure on rate-sensitive equities and supporting carry flows.
- Dollar index slips amid weaker greenback tone: The softer dollar encourages capital shift toward emerging markets and fuels inflows.
- Gold extends gains on risk aversion: With global uncertainty persisting, bullion remains a favored hedge and sees fresh demand.
- Brent crude holds steady on supply concerns: Global oil markets remain tight amid disruptions and disciplined production from major producers.
- Rupee steadies despite external pressure: INR is seeing some support as weakness in the dollar offsets import demand and capital outflow.
- FIIs show tentative buying; DIIs add support: Foreign flows are modestly positive, while domestic institutions continue to step in with steady purchases.
// Market Outlook & Trade Setup
The global tone is turning more favorable as easing expectations gain traction and U.S. data softens. For the Indian market, that opens up the possibility of follow-through strength if flows hold up. The firmer bias in GIFT Nifty suggests early traction, but sustaining gains will depend heavily on liquidity and support at key resistance zones.
Implied volatility remains elevated, indicating that traders expect swings within the session. On the flow front, modest FII buying counters months of pressure, and DIIs are continuing to underpin markets. That said, their ability to extend gains is limited unless foreign momentum escalates. Overnight F&O contract flows will hint at directional conviction — a solid buildup of long positions could provide upside cushion, while weak participation may leave markets vulnerable to pullbacks.
Implied cues for open, direction, and trend: Expect a positive open, with upside potential if global momentum sustains. The session is likely to lean bullish, provided resistance levels break cleanly. For trend confirmation, fresh foreign inflows or strong global catalysts are key to pushing beyond consolidation zones.