Global Macro Signals (01 October)
- GIFT Nifty falters early amid global jitter: Futures are down about 12 points, reflecting nervous positioning ahead of RBI’s policy decision and mixed overseas cues.
- RBI holds rates steady, but signals room to ease later: The central bank maintained the repo rate at 5.50 %, but lowered inflation outlook and floated support measures for credit markets.
- Asia opens subdued amid global uncertainty: Regional markets are flat to negative, with investors cautious ahead of U.S. data and global growth concerns.
- U.S. futures steady after mixed overnight session: Key indices held up despite weakness in some sectors, indicating selective risk appetite among global players.
- 10-year U.S. yield near 4.1 % keeps pressure on equities: Elevated yields make yield assets relatively more attractive and dampen inflows to equities.
- Dollar index inches up on haven bids: A firming dollar is weighing on emerging market currencies and reducing risk capital flows.
- Gold remains bid as uncertainty lingers: Bullion continues to attract safe-haven flows amid policy ambiguity and macro stress.
- Brent crude supported by supply constraints: Tightness in supply, especially from Middle East and OPEC discipline, offsets demand concerns.
- Rupee recovers modestly against dollar: INR strengthened marginally, aided by weaker dollar and expectations of RBI support.
- Foreign selling persists, domestic flows moderate: FIIs remain net sellers even as DIIs pick up some slack, leaving directional bias fragile.
// Market Outlook & Trade Setup
The global outlook today is one of cautious optimism tempered by policy ambiguity and macro uncertainty. For the Indian market, the weak early bias from GIFT Nifty suggests that the initial tone may be soft unless strong domestic or global cues provide directional clarity. Technically, Nifty will need to overcome resistance near recent highs to sustain an up move, while breach of support zones around moving averages could accelerate downside pressure.
Implied volatility is elevated, signaling that market participants are bracing for intraday swings without strong directional conviction. On the liquidity front, continued FII selling is placing the burden of stability on DIIs and domestic flows. Their support can mitigate sharp drops but may fall short in driving sustained momentum. Overnight F&O contract flows will be key — any build-up in long positions could offer some cushion, whereas light participation may expose the market to further weakness.
Implied cues for open, direction, and trend: Expect a soft open unless global surprises shift sentiment early. The session is likely to remain range-bound with a tilt toward downside unless support zones hold firm. For trend continuation, India will need decisive inflows or a supportive global impulse to break above resistance.